[SMM Analysis] Production Peaks with Limited Demand Growth, Oriented Silicon Steel Prices in the Doldrums

Price Movement of Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel

Shanghai B23R085: 13,800-14,000 yuan/mt

Wuhan 23RK085: 13,700-13,900 yuan/mt

This week, prices of most grades of cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel dropped, with sluggish market transactions. Market feedback indicates that cost-wise, HRC futures initially dipped before rebounding, but market confidence remained weak. HRC inventory began accumulating, and spot prices dropped slightly, weakening cost support for grain-oriented silicon steel and bearish for its market. Supply side, newly commissioned production lines at producers operated normally, increasing grain-oriented silicon steel supply. However, some producers' order intake in September fell short of expectations, with direct supply declining, leading to looser supply. Demand side, the previous sharp price surge in grain-oriented silicon steel prompted substantial downstream end-user orders, leaving current demand focused on inventory drawdown with low purchase willingness. Coupled with the market's initial jump and subsequent pullback, wait-and-see sentiment intensified, further dampening procurement intent. Looking ahead, with demand release lagging expectations, production continuing to climb, and cost support weakening, grain-oriented silicon steel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums next week, retaining room for further declines.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived from public sources, market exchanges, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.

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